lunedì 21 febbraio 2022

EU aid Ukraine (under the IMF programme). Fear to do this alone?

The first good news is that the EU will provide an emergency macro-financial assistance operation of €1.2 billion in the form of loans to foster stability in Ukraine

The second one is that the Council finalised the adoption today, only 21 days after the Commission presented its proposal.

The bad news are that the release of the first and second tranche are subject to the implementation of the IMF programme, would occur swiftly after the approval of this proposal, upon entry into force of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on specific structural policy measures, to be agreed between the European Commission on behalf of the EU and Ukraine.

So EU intends to provide swift support in a situation of acute crisis and to strengthen Ukraine’s resilience or try to change the Ukraine state? 

I fully understand that we cannot lend money unconditionally, but why IMF and not only an MoU between EU and Ukraine? When Europe will become an international player? 

domenica 30 gennaio 2022

This President of the Republic is for 7 years, unless he decide differently

The failure to bring Draghi to the Quirinale could be explained with the strenght of his personality. Too much the peolple that resisted to the idea to have such a strong man in office for 7 years. 

But what they missed, it is the following scenario. To have Mattarella and Draghi for more than 1year, even with the next Parliament. Political forces believe (wrongly) to repete the Napolitano's story, when the 11th President of the Italian Republic "accepted" to be king for a shorter period than the one provided by the Constitution (7 years). 

This time will be different. The 2 President will govern even in the next legislature, unless political parties are able to evolve from the current (low) level to a modern one, where they look after the Country looking at the future (digital, green, social sustainable country) and not at the social media followers they have. 

We need a different approach. Not asking people to become politician, but to let a new politician generation going to the parliament. Otherwise, no future for us. 

mercoledì 19 gennaio 2022

Inflation, my friend

 In Italy, the main discussion point continue to be the next President of The Republic. I continue to support theidea that Mario Draghi will be the new one.

At the same time the resurgence of the inflation rate in EU and in US continue to influence the financial market moves. It is not a surprise that the ECB's stance is diffetent form the FED's ones, as EU Member States fears the increase in the interest rates, as this will imply an increase in the costo of the public debt.

While an higher inflation, will reduce the real cost of debt....And this time is not just an Italian Problem.

giovedì 6 gennaio 2022

The package that will bring Draghi (or someone else) to the Quirinale

The discussion on the next President of the Italian Republic is going to be on the top of the news up to the 24th of January when the Parliament will meet for the first vote.

What is emerging today is that is not onlw the name of the next President under discussion these days but a more complex agrrement among the political parties:

1. who will be the next head of the Government 
2. how long will last the Parliament  
3. how to change the electoral law

Today's discussion is just about the point 1 of my list. Unless you see the discussion starting on the electoral law, the name of the new President of the Republic will not emerge. The man that is able to convince the politial arties on the above-mentioned points will be the nex President.

My favourite answer:
1. a center-left guy
2. up to march 2023 
3. proportional,with a majority premium to ensure the governability