EU aid Ukraine (under the IMF programme). Fear to do this alone?

The first good news is that the EU will provide an emergency macro-financial assistance operation of €1.2 billion in the form of loans to foster stability in Ukraine. 

The second one is that the Council finalised the adoption today, only 21 days after the Commission presented its proposal.

The bad news are that the release of the first and second tranche are subject to the implementation of the IMF programme, would occur swiftly after the approval of this proposal, upon entry into force of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on specific structural policy measures, to be agreed between the European Commission on behalf of the EU and Ukraine.

So EU intends to provide swift support in a situation of acute crisis and to strengthen Ukraine’s resilience or try to change the Ukraine state? 

I fully understand that we cannot lend money unconditionally, but why IMF and not only an MoU between EU and Ukraine? When Europe will become an international player? 

This President of the Republic is for 7 years, unless he decide differently

The failure to bring Draghi to the Quirinale could be explained with the strenght of his personality. Too much the peolple that resisted to the idea to have such a strong man in office for 7 years. 

But what they missed, it is the following scenario. To have Mattarella and Draghi for more than 1year, even with the next Parliament. Political forces believe (wrongly) to repete the Napolitano's story, when the 11th President of the Italian Republic "accepted" to be king for a shorter period than the one provided by the Constitution (7 years). 

This time will be different. The 2 President will govern even in the next legislature, unless political parties are able to evolve from the current (low) level to a modern one, where they look after the Country looking at the future (digital, green, social sustainable country) and not at the social media followers they have. 

We need a different approach. Not asking people to become politician, but to let a new politician generation going to the parliament. Otherwise, no future for us. 

Inflation, my friend

 In Italy, the main discussion point continue to be the next President of The Republic. I continue to support theidea that Mario Draghi will be the new one.

At the same time the resurgence of the inflation rate in EU and in US continue to influence the financial market moves. It is not a surprise that the ECB's stance is diffetent form the FED's ones, as EU Member States fears the increase in the interest rates, as this will imply an increase in the costo of the public debt.

While an higher inflation, will reduce the real cost of debt....And this time is not just an Italian Problem.

The package that will bring Draghi (or someone else) to the Quirinale

The discussion on the next President of the Italian Republic is going to be on the top of the news up to the 24th of January when the Parliament will meet for the first vote.

What is emerging today is that is not onlw the name of the next President under discussion these days but a more complex agrrement among the political parties:

1. who will be the next head of the Government 

2. how long will last the Parliament  

3. how to change the electoral law

Today's discussion is just about the point 1 of my list. Unless you see the discussion starting on the electoral law, the name of the new President of the Republic will not emerge. The man that is able to convince the politial arties on the above-mentioned points will be the nex President.

My favourite answer:

1. a center-left guy

2. up to march 2023 

3. proportional,with a majority premium to ensure the governability 

It has been a long time since the last post. I am back to propose my ideas on what is happening in Italy and in Europe for those that would like to have an independent, free of charge, point of view on politics and economics. 

First thoughts on the next President of the Republic in Italy.

Discussion are just started and the potential players have not moved all their chess, yet. Ma idea is that we are at the beginning of what we can call the "Third Republic". In other words, the end of the unbalances between the (official) different powers of the Country born in 1992. The final balance is yet to come and it cannot be predicted, but I see a different political scenario going forward, with a new managing class taking the position of the old style politician currently running the Country. 

The election of the President of the Republic is the starting point for these changes. And it does not depend on the name of the new President, that may just speed up the process, but from the different number of MPs in the next Parliament. This reduction - they will be halved - means that the works of the Parliament have to be revised. Today, due to the high number of MPs, someone can not join the Commissions or be absent during a vote. This will not be possible, anymore.  

As a consequence, I expect the productivity of the MPs to increase and to be more effective than in the past. Not immediately, may be. But the political party that understand this point before the others, will win the election. People deserves and require good government. 

As Mario Draghi and his Government is demonstrating. 

Political crisis in Italy, part II

Something's Moving in the Italian Political scenario. 

All the Democratic forces that belongs to different parties feel the isolation of Italy in the world and are would love to form a new government that reduces tension in the country and in the international community.

However such a government should be based on a programme. A politic programme, not a contract that define a commercial government not a political one.

To form this type of government, based on a vast majority of MPs currently in Parliament, Italy needs time and should carefully manage the reaction of the political forces that may be excluded. 

This implies that an exectional effort should be made to include all the parties in this deal, even partially, so that no one is really against this government, that has only one scope: to relaunch the Italian economy and the political presence Internationally.

Stay tuned 

Ferragosto day, hot for politician in Italy

During  Ferragosto the Political situation in Italy Is always quiet ; all people including politician are at the Seaside, but this time the situation is different.

Today, it is time to send messages through interviews or Twitter so that after the break and before the speech of President Conte next week before the Senate, it is possible to find a way to exit from the current enpasse in which politics in Italy is.

I see 2 possibilities: the first One is that General election is called in October this year; the second is that the election is called in eighteen months from now.

There is no possibility that the crisis will last longer: or there is a new  majority in the Parliament or there will be a new general election.

The first scenario means that a new program, even a light one, should be in place and voted by the Parliament. The new programme should be presented by a president of the council and ministers that should be agreed with the new majority parties. The only incentive for this scenario to become real  - and it is very strong - is that MPs would like to maintain their current position. Not really a political agreement but only the willingness to stay in office as long as it is possible. Please note that this scenario do not means that this new government could not implement important and efficient reform. The other way round apply in Italy in this case. Often.

Stay tuned and stay well!